At the onset of another hurricane season,
Gavin Schmidt's Quick Study piece on "The Physics of Climate Modeling" (PHYSICS TODAY, January
2007, page 72) could not be more timely nor on a topic of greater importance. It follows one by Kerry
Emanuel in the August 2006 issue (page 74) on thermal aspects of greenhouse gases contributing
to hurricane genesis. And in the November 2006 item "Science Board Recommends Major Hurricane
Research Program" (page 30), Jim Dawson directed attention both to the devastation wreaked by
Hurricane Katrina and to a National Science Board panel convened to investigate the root causes
of severe, damaging storms and ways to ameliorate their effects. We're among the concerned scientists
and engineers who have written letters in support of the NSB effort, and we now provide additional
information on the topic.
First, we underscore the
broader need for research funding by pointing out that the topic of weather damage encompasses
more than hurricanes developing from severe storms over water. Dawson's November article stated,
"Politicians from the Dakotas and Montana 'don't think [research on hurricanes] is their problem.' "
However, tornadoes spawned by severe storms over land are very much an increasing threat to people,
infrastructure, and property in the US interior. Tolls associated with these devastating killers
are staggering. On average, 800 tornadoes occur nationwide each year. The Environmental Protection
Agency states that tornadoes annually cause approximately $1.1 billion in damages and around
80 fatalities. On 3 May 2003, for example, a series of tornadoes ripped through Oklahoma City and
its environs, leaving 48 people dead and causing more than $1 billion in damage. The hurricane insurance
losses for 2005 were $57 billion, the highest ever before Hurricane Katrina, whose costs are still
being counted. And on 5 May 2007, a single tornado with winds up to 205 miles per hour struck and essentially
destroyed the town of Greensburg, Kansas. Thus, whether over land or sea, there are more than enough
concerns about personnel, infrastructure, and finances to warrant investing in research on severe
storms.
Second, now appears to
be an optimum time for bringing together the previously estranged communities of weather modification
practitioners, who are mostly supported by insurance industries, and research academics, who
have very limited funds. A considerable amount of data on practical weather modifications has
accumulated, and significant advances have occurred in fundamental model descriptions of severe-weather-based
instabilities; for example, two of us (Armstrong and Glenn) have reexamined the role of electrification
forces in contributing to tornado formation.1 With coordinated efforts, a new, stronger
community can be formed to advance the art and science of weather modification.
In another case, Jürgen
Michele, Vladimir Pudov, and one of us (Alamaro) have been discussing a concept inspired by a 1970s
Soviet weather-modification program in the Baltics.2 In that program, an array of
jet engines was employed to form a vertical air flow that, it was hoped, would be sufficient to cause
cloud formation. Even in a stable atmosphere, 9 out of 15 tests led to cloud formation. Alamaro and
coworkers presented the hypothesis that the method may be used for such weather modification applications
as frost prevention, fog dispersion, and, most ambitiously, hurricane modification. In the case
of hurricane modification, a designed array of multiple jets would be used to create atmospheric
perturbations that might turn a hurricane back to sea.
References
1. R. W. Armstrong, J. G. Glenn, J. Weather Modif.38, 77 (2006); available at [LINK].
2. M. Alamaro, J. Michele, V. Pudov, J. Weather Modif.38, 82 (2006); available at [LINK].
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